Can China afford to Go to war against the US and allies on Taiwan?

 

Can China afford to Go to war against the US and allies on Taiwan?

War is never desired but sometimes it’s the only option to bring peace, and it seems that a new one could be around the corner and may hit us sooner than what we had expected. As and when WW1 started everyone was aware of the quantum of the impact that it was going to make, even though it was a war involving fairly recent innovations and ancestors of weapons that now every major nations holds. Not only WW1 kill 21-22 million people but it sowed the seeds of WW2 in the minds of defeated nations and their future leaders.

WW2 came with devastation that could have not been imagined by any human brain up until then. It brought agony to millions and death to some 40-50 million, which can be approximately equated to the entire population of South Korea and more than Spain in 2022.

Why future seems grim.

Coming at number 1 and 3, China and the USA have a population of 1.4 Billion and 325 million respectively. Both the nations have economies at number 2 and 1, which are far ahead than number 3 and 4.

Militaristically China may lag behind in sophistication but have caught up with the US in numbers and boasts 2 highest military budget. Both at the different ends of a global eastern western spheres but yet manage to find ways to be at odds with each other.

Though it is in favor of both the nations to not escalate their rhetoric in to any kind of armed stand-offs but current scenarios seem to evolve otherwise.

Although there are enough number of reasons to dis-agree on but the major point of discomfort is the Taiwan, and its liberty, sovereignty and territorial rights, which are almost well exercised by Taiwan practically but on paper reflects Taiwan as under People’s Republic of China.

Everything was functioning well as Taiwan never overtly claimed to be an independent nation and China ignored its independent functioning as it never challenged PRC.

Deng Xiaoping famously said ‘hide your strength, bide your time’ to show that China was waiting for its coming of age. China let everything slip by as it was ramping up its economy and military to challenge the only potent threat that could intervene in Taiwan’s takeover.

The USA is that potent threat which has military, economic and political wherewithal to challenge China and potentially defeat it. Also, The US is bound by its commitment to protect Taiwan in case of any invasion, while at the same time it maintains that Taiwan is a part of PRC.

Tread Cautiously, War ahead!

As China climbs up the power ladder, chances of it challenging the US increases drastically, and in similar terms US will feel threatened which will make it feel more pressed to take containing measures against China.

Looking up the prospects where China and the US somehow lands up in a situation where pulling back may result suicidal politically for both the parties, with more certainty for China’s CCP. We have China intercepting Australian fighters in South China Sea which were international waters but claimed by Beijing, however no shots were exchanges but risky maneuvers were performed by the Chinese fighters.

Recent call of President Biden with President Xi on 29 July 2022 brought forth the usage of an aggressive language that China until now was using at embassy, diplomats level often named as wolf warrior strategy. This call amazingly showed that highest levels of Chinese leaders are resorting to threatening to sole super power.

It was reported that China asked the US to not play with fire and if continued then the same fire will burn them. It was shocking as a head of the nation directly threatening the other over a call and that too when both strong nations are capable enough to deal a strong blow to other.

As the US speaker Nancy Pelosi completed her tour of Asia where she visited Taiwan Nancy’s airplane was escorted by American fighter planes. Taking out a clue from the Australian intercepting incident and reports on possible interception of her plane and shooting it down if needed would mean an act of war, leaving the US with no other option but an all-out war, Thankfully, which did not happen.

Who stands to Lose?

Looking at how connected the world is and post Ukraine invasion of Russia in Feb 2022 and its subsequent repercussions that was felt by entire world in general and Europe in particular, which was much more than what was expected by Europe, On the other hand Russia suffered lesser at least initially.

China’s case cannot be traced on the similar lines as China does not have secured lines of energy as well as its export lines go through the regions dominated by its adversaries, ironically, the US is the largest trading and export destination for China.  

A miscalculation on the part of China can set a ball in motion of an unwanted events that might not be in control of anyone not even UN, let alone China.

Whole world stands to lose from this war but China may end up with a devastated economy, regime change and worst loss of territory in addition to the huge chunk of young population that would have been lost in the course of a war.

Malacca strait

It seems neither CCP nor any other nation stands get something significant out of this possible war other than just devastation of unprecedented level.

Now turning towards the US in particular and the world in general, China is not the only one to suffer the consequences, being the largest exporter of the world and a manufacturing hub, any disruption is going to batter the western economies as well.

Nation that manufactures one out of each five objects manufactured around the world can easily disrupt supply chains of essential commodities that can have repercussions in the areas that we just cannot even imagine.

China provides majority of semi-conductors, around 80% of rare earth metals, most of the fruits and grains along with consumer electronics. Even the US allies are heavily dependent on China leaving them susceptible to supply disruption in addition to problems that they already suffer due to Russia sanctions.

Strengths for Thee US and hard time for Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

Chinese Communist Party has effectively suppressed any revolution or information penetration from outside its border which has made it easier to propel its propaganda across the China and make its population believe that they are being at receiving end.

Once a war breaks out then no stones will be left unturned by the US or west to ensure that every bit of true info reaches common Chinese. As China will be stretched out in terms of all its resources, it will be hard for CCP to quell any unrest domestically.

Considering Xinjiang,, Tibet and Indian border are all unstable and volatile fronts for China, it will next to impossible for CCP to maintain control across all these regions. The US is very much aware of these fault lines and will surely target in addition to its economic onslaught and military power.

A major strength for the US is its number of allies, which are all developed nations with sophisticated war machines and best of the best techs in addition to the strength of combined numbers.

We know until the US and threatens mainland with nuke or captures huge area of China, which the US definitely doesn’t want then going out nuclear is not that easy for China, therefore, leaving odds heavily favoring the US and its allies.

It seems that this winter will be a real mess for the whole world, and we can only wish that better minds prevail on both the sides.